Citing data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (which apparently conducts macroeconomic studies and projections), Bloomberg Business shows the twenty countries that will have the largest economies in the world in just fifteen years time.
An assessment of the data:
The U.S. will just barely remain the global leader, with $24.8 trillion in annual output. The gray bar represents the $16.8 trillion gross domestic product projected for 2015, and the green bar shows how much bigger the economy is expected to be 15 years from now. The country, worth 25 percent of the world economy in 2006 and 23 percent in 2015, will see its share decline to 20 percent.
India, ranked eighth for 2015, will climb past Brazil, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Japan to take third place in the world ranking. The International Monetary Fund calls India “the bright spot in the global landscape.” The country will have the largest workforce in the world within the next 15 years, the IMF notes, and among the youngest.
Other nations won’t be so lucky, particularly among developed economies. Japan, which was a roaring economy until its asset bubble burst in the early 1990s, has already slogged through decades of stagnation and will likely continue to see very little growth over the next 15 years. That will push Japan down a spot in the rankings by 2030, according to the USDA estimates.
Japan is “an important lesson in how quickly you can downshift your status of what a structure of an economy delivers,” said Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s chief economist.
France will slide three spots, while Italy drops two.
In the overall ranking, Jamaica will surrender the most ground, bumping down 13 places to 136. Countries with the biggest advances — like Uganda, which will climb 18 spots to rank 91 — are concentrated in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
“There are lots of uncertainties,” said Kasman. “Whether China grows at 4 percent or 6 percent matters an awful lot for where it looks like it’s going to be in the global economy. Whether India grows at 3 percent or 8 percent — these are huge differences when you compound them over long periods of time.”
The USDA is not the only — and hardly the most widely-followed — ranking of global economic growth, though it does offer the advantage of particularly long-term outlooks. The International Monetary Fund’s economic outlook only projects out two years. Look out for it later this month.
For a projection that goes another twenty years beyond the USDA’s, here are the biggest economies by 2050, accoriding to the World Bank and Goldman Sachs:
Finally, here are the twenty fastest-growing countries of 2015, also courtesy of Bloomberg.
Needless to say, there will be interesting times ahead, as economic power, and with it global influence, diffuses across an increasingly multipolar world.
What are your thoughts?